Again the Question – Will it be the Same This Time?
RBC Global Asset Management recently released a research note with some interesting insight.
They found that when the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index was rising month-to-month and was already above zero on a year-over-year basis, the stock market averaged an 11.8% gain in the following 12 months.
The last time this happened was just before the U.S. presidential election – and the strong market rally then followed.
From the RBC note: “Improvement in the LEI is meaningful because stocks have returned an annualized average of 11.8% in periods where the LEI is positive and rising as it is now, compared with just 0.3% when the LEI is positive but falling, which was the case prior to the start of the latest rally.”
As of its latest reading, the LEI continued to strengthen from an above-zero condition. According to this measure, at least, it seems there are prospects for more gains.
And, as if we need to say this, as always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.