President Trump made it to 100 days in office on April 30.
Markets are higher with many indexes hitting all-time highs, businesses seem happy to have a pro-business President, and everything is awesome–or is it?
Real, so-called ‘hard’, economic data may be collapsing.
The Atlanta Fed produces a “real-time” gauge of GDP called “GDPNow”, which is based on ‘hard data only’ (i.e., no projections or guesses about the future or measures of sentiment – known as ‘soft data’).
As the weak first quarter GDP print showed, optimism and sentiment alone can’t lift the real economy.
The following chart shows the current level of divergence between two economic indexes–the New York Fed’s GDP estimate, called the NOWCAST index (which includes loads of soft data), and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW index (which contains none).
So, when I see this it creates two questions from my perspective.
Which one is correct? This obviously comes to mind first. And does it really matter?
Or are they both correct? And, again, does it really matter?
And the other question: What about the other Federal Reserve districts? What arcane statistical factoid have they come up with?
Let’s not forget that the more data that’s thrown our way, the more it might simply confuse us more.
Is that the real plan? To make it so convoluted that we stop paying attention?
Remember the Mark Twain quotes: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
And the one I just found that I hadn’t seen before: “Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.”
You figure it out. I give up!