Don’t Time a Correction. The S&P 500 rose 19.4% in 2017 excluding dividends and is already up over 4% in 2018. It’s not a bubble or a sugar high. Our capitalized profits model, says the broad U.S. stock market, is, and was, undervalued.
Six Words and Terms That are Basically “Fake News”. Read on to find out all six.
A True Early Warning or Simply Chicken Little? The researchers found that when an asset has a price run-up of 100% or more in a two-year period, the probability of a crash becomes 50%. When focusing on run-ups of at least 150%, that probability jumps to 80%. Higher than that and a crash is a near-certainty. Bitcoin’s run-up over the last two years is nearly 2,500%.
Are we really making progress? Payrolls are up 2 million from a year ago. Some will dismiss the growth as “the rich getting richer,” but the facts say otherwise. Usual weekly earnings for full-time workers at the bottom 10% are up 4.6% versus a year ago; earnings for those at the bottom 25% are up 5.3% from a year ago. By contrast, usual weekly earnings for the median worker are up 3.9% while earnings for those at the top 25% and top 10% are up less than 2%.
Better Late Than Never. The last of the world’s major regional indices has finally gotten back to its 2007 highs. Check out how few the number of countries in recession are now.
Hey, Who Doesn’t Want to be in the Top 1%?? If you do, then you might want to see if you’re doing some very basic stuff – owning stocks!
Good Golly! This Economy is Really OK! We’ve been pounding this drum for quite a while now, so this should come as no surprise.
Stock Markets, 2008-2009, Investment Markets